CoinGecko says that the price of Bitcoin (BTC), which is now in the mid-$29,000 range, has gone up by more than 6.0% in the last 24 hours.
Even though Bitcoin is still down around 4.5 percent from the 10-month highs it hit earlier this month above $31,000, it has risen close to 10 percent since it tested its 50-day moving average around $27,000 a few days ago.
And with fears of a bank crisis coming back to the fore as the First Republic is once again under scrutiny (which makes people want to buy Bitcoin as a safe haven) and tech stocks going up (which is good for Bitcoin), bulls are getting ready for a price explosion north of the psychologically important $30,000 level.
And Bitcoin isn’t just getting a boost from macroeconomics right now.
The cryptocurrency is still getting bought because 1) it has a strong rebound from the 50DMA, 2) it has a strong rebound from the 200DMA, and its price was under $20,000 in March, and 3) it had a “golden cross” in early February.
On Twitter, a number of experts said that Bitcoin seems to be following the same path as a rally it had in 2019. In that rally, the cryptocurrency hit lows and kept going up.
One expert wondered if Bitcoin was about to go up “impulsively” to $50,000.
Analysis of Bitcoin’s long-term market cycle shows that it would be historically normal for the cryptocurrency to stay in a strong uptrend for the immediate future. This is another reason why bulls should expect a near-term push to the north of $30,000.
From the bottom of the bear market in 2015 to the peak of the bull market in 2017, Bitcoin grew by an incredible more than 12,500%.
Bitcoin got 2,100% from the bottom of its bear market in 2018 to the top of its bull market in 2021.
Assuming that each time a bear market ends, the gains are less and less, could Bitcoin see a 1,000% (11x) rise from its lows in 2022?
That would mean that Bitcoin will be worth around $165,000 in the next few years.
The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow pricing model says that the Bitcoin market cycle lasts about four years. This shows an expected price level based on how many BTC are on the market compared to how many are mined each year.
The fair price of Bitcoin right now is around $55K, and it could go up to more than $500K in the next market cycle after the halving. This would be a gain of about 20x from present levels.
At the same time, Blockchaincenter.net’s famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that Bitcoin is in the “Accumulate” zone right now, after just getting out of the “Basically a Fire Sale” zone in late 2022. In other words, the model shows that Bitcoin is slowly getting better after being sold off too much. During Bitcoin’s last run-up, it got to the “Sell. Seriously, SELL!” zone.
If it can do this again within one to one and a half years after the next split, the model predicts that the price of Bitcoin could be between $200K and $300K. That’s about 7–10 times more than what they have now.
If the BTC price does quickly jump back up above $30,000, as a trading signal tracked by Bloomberg said last week is historically likely, the first major area of resistance for traders to keep an eye on will be between $32,500 and $33,000, where the high from late May 2022 and the low from January 2022 are.
Above that, the next important level is low in February 2022, which was around $34,000. After that comes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows in 2022 to the record highs in 2021, which is just below $36,000, and then an old support zone in the mid-$37,000s.
If Bitcoin can break through all of these levels, it will probably go up quickly above $40,000 and try the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows of 2022 to the highs of 2021 in the low $42,000s.
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